Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Two-wheel drive drives the fragrance of Chinese wine-this nine systems create the core competitiveness of Moutai

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Two-wheel drive drives the fragrance of Chinese wine-this nine systems create the core competitiveness of Moutai
Core point of view: After the liquor industry has undergone adjustments, it has begun to recover since 2016. With the rise of the middle class and consumption upgrades, the consumption structure of high-end liquor has changed, and personal consumption and business consumption have overlapped. Liquor consumption has concentrated on high-end and famous wines.To develop opportunities.As a leader in high-end liquor, Guizhou Moutai has become the industry benchmark and price leader.We announce our long-term goal 5 based on Moutai’s wine production.In the early stage, the output of Moutai corresponding to the sale of finished wine in 2024 was simply estimated to reach 4.6 Baseline, an increase of 40% compared to 2018. We expect that the future increase in Moutai ton prices will come mainly from three aspects: 1) there are still price increases expected, 2) the proportion of direct sales will continue to increase, and 3) Moutai will increase more at the same time.The value-added non-standard products are expected to reach 140 billion yuan in revenue by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15%. Product history: Moutai has a long history, and the expansion of its faucet is gradual.Maotai, Guizhou, with its unique national wine culture, special brewing technology and monopolized industries in sauce-flavored liquor, has created the scarcity of Maotai and has gradually become a high-end liquor leader.Since 1952, Maotaiji wine production has increased by 49,596.69 tons, the price increased by 75700%, the volume and price rose to drive the continued high growth of Maotai’s performance.Since listing, Moutai’s compound growth rate has reached 25.53%, with a compound profit growth rate of 31.89%. Knowing the moment: The competition pattern of high-end liquor is superior. Since the early days, the three leading companies in Maowuquan have both increased in volume and price, and their high prosperity has continued.The liquor boom cycle has been extended. Benefiting from the increase in residents’ income levels and the increase in the concentration of structural growth in the industry, high-end liquor has continued to exceed the industry’s revenue and profit growth rate, and the concentration of leading companies has continued to increase.The competition of high-end liquor is outstanding, showing a trend of capacity expansion. The leading market share of Moutai’s revenue is from 46 in 2012.58% increased to 64 in 2018.17%.Since the beginning of 2019, the supply of Maotai has been tight, and the approval price has increased from around 1700 yuan at the beginning of the year to more than 2,000 yuan. Benefiting from the rising approval price of Maotai, approvals for Wuliangye and Laojiao continued to rise, and the high-end liquor boom cycle continued, with both volume and price rising. Looking at the future: Two-wheel drive drives the national wine fragrance: 1: The success of Moutai is the success of the strategic system, and the seven major systems create the core competitiveness of Moutai.2: Product structure optimization: The company’s complete product line, non-standard products above Pfeiffer have reached more than 30% of volume, the price band layout is perfect, benefiting from the increase in the proportion of wealthy classes in the future, the proportion of products above Pfeiffer is expected to furtherPromotion.3: The old wine market is in the ascendant, adding a new consumer group in Maotai.The 北京夜网 mature Moutai consumption scene in the old wine market is more refined and scaled, and Moutai’s consumer group is larger than before.4: Due to tight supply of Moutai and high channel profits, there is still expectation of price increase in the future.5: The company will increase the construction of direct-operated stores and increase the proportion of direct-operated stores.The two-wheel drive strategy takes shape, and the future series of wine will be another growth pole.At present, the company’s two-wheel drive strategy is gradually taking shape. At the same time as the steady growth of Moutai, the series of wine products have started to develop rapidly with the company’s strong support in the past two years.In 2017, the company’s series of wines achieved 6.5 billion U.S. dollars, with a target of more than 8 billion U.S. dollars 杭州夜网 in 2018, and actually achieved about 8.8 billion U.S. dollars. In 2018, the series of wines did not increase, mainly due to the improvement of product structure and the increase in non-standard proportion.In 2019, the company’s series of wine products will sprint 10 billion ranking targets without increasing.In the future, a series of wine products will become an important growth pole for the company, and an important supplement to the company’s sub-high-end and mid-end price bands. Investment suggestion: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 34.98, 40.36, 47.30 yuan, the corresponding PE is 30.0X, 25.9X, 22.1X. According to Moutai wine announcement, the base wine production for 18 years and the planned base wine production for 2020 will reach 5.6 is the earliest. It can be estimated that the sales volume of Moutai will reach 4 in 2024.Around 6 years ago, the annual sales volume increased by more than 40% in 2018; Moutai canceled the dealer’s estimated reservation of about 3,500 tons in recent years. In the future, it is expected that recycling will be launched directly or increase the sales of non-standard wine, which will bring a significant increase in the price of tons;; At present, the supply and demand structure of Moutai is still tight, the approval price is still slowly increasing, the price difference between the ex-factory price and the terminal retail price is obvious, and the channel profit exceeds 130%. It is expected that there will be room for price increase in the future.In summary, in the next few years, the compound growth rate of Moutai will reach about 15%. With reference to foreign spirits leaders, Tiagio, Pak Fook Mun, Pernod Ricard, etc., it is expected that Moutai is still expected to further improve. Risk reminder: overall industry risk, downside risks to the macro economy, and the proportion of direct sales is not up to expectations