Spring Airlines (601021): Decrease in capacity growth rate in December under a high base

Spring Airlines (601021): Decrease in capacity growth rate in December under a high base

The company’s recent situation Spring Airlines announced December operating data: demand (RPK) increased for ten years.

At 4%, supply (ASK) has grown for ten years.

9%, the load factor has fallen by 1 in ten years.

1 up to 87.


On January 12, 2019, the company’s RPK increased by 14 each year.

4%, requiring an annual increase of 12.

2%, gradually increasing passenger seating rate.

8 up to 90.


Commenting on a high base, the company ‘s overall capacity increased the fastest in December, and the load factor decreased by a few times.

The company’s ASK increased 13 in half a year in December.

4%, down from 21 in November.

7%, also slower than around December 2018 17.

22% growth.

Passenger load factor temporarily decreased by 1 in December.

1ppt to 87.

8%, the previous decline was 0 from November.

5ppt slightly expanded, with international passenger load factor reduced by 3.

8ppt (VS.

It fell by 2 in November.

6ppt), we estimate that the high base and the Japanese line’s competitive pressure and the international line load factor performance are under pressure.

Japan ‘s line of competition still exists, but increasing market share may bring long-term benefits.

According to CAPA data, the overall ASK of the Sino-Japanese route industry in December 杭州桑拿网 increased by about 45%, of which the ASK of the Sino-Japanese route in December and Spring was 126%. With the growth rate being the same as in November, we estimate thatThe revenue is still under pressure, but considering the expansion of the capacity of the Japanese line, the company’s market share in the Sino-Japanese route has increased. We believe that once the pressure of Sino-Japanese market competition slows down in the future, the company is expected to benefit in the long run.

Occupancy rates before 2019 have increased slightly in the short term1.

8 singles are the best among the carbonizations we cover.

The company’s ASK for the full year of 2019 increased by 12 half a year.

2%, RPK grows by 14 per year.

4%, the load factor increased by 1 in advance.

8 up to 90.


Except for the regional passenger load factor, which is flat every year, the average domestic and international passenger load factor has continued to increase, reflecting the company’s good supply and demand matching ability.

We expect the company’s fourth-quarter 2019 net profit to be approximately 8% to 83 million yuan every quarter. The main considerations are: due to the intensified competition in the Japanese line and weak regional lines in the fourth quarter of 2019, we expect the company’s passenger-km revenue to increase in the fourth quarter of 2019.To half 4.

5%, oil prices fall about 16% per year, unit non-oil costs increase by 2% per year, and other benefits remain flat for a long time.

It is estimated that the company currently can sustainably correspond to the 18th of 2020.

1x P / E, considering that passenger-kilometer revenue in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations and lowered its 2019/2020 profit forecast3.

3% / 1.
2% to 18.

1.5 billion, 2021 profit forecast25.

28 ppm, maintain outperform industry rating and target price of 49 yuan, corresponding to 2019/2020/2021 24.



8 times P / E, which is 12 compared to current expectations.

2% upside.

Risks Aviation demand is less than expected; oil prices have grown significantly; fleet introduction has been slower; supplementary declines.