Why is the amount of financing in January?

The initial response is all here

Why is the amount of financing in January?
The initial response is all here

Why is the amount of financing in January?
Is it “a flood of water”?

Will it cut interest rates?

The breakthrough response is all here!

  China Fund News China Fund News reporter Liu Yuhui during the finishing of the website on February 15 showed that the People’s Bank of China ‘s antique financial statistics interpretation briefing for January 2019.

Interpret and respond to January 2019 financial statistics and current hot issues.

The full text of this briefing was more than 7,500 words. Fund Jun sorted out the six most concerned issues in the market for interpretation and response.

  Core question 1: What factors supported the evolution of M2 growth in January: The rebound in M2 growth in January should be a concentrated reflection of the effects of the previous monetary policy. First, the People’s Bank of China moderately increased the medium and long-term liquidity supply.

Secondly, commercial banks increased the use of funds, on-balance-sheet credit, bond investment and equity and other investments increased exchange rates to promote the growth of M2.

  Core question 2: Why did the growth rate of M1 fall further in January?

  Important: Seeing the factors of the Spring Festival driving the growth of M1 again.

We mentioned that the fall of M1 mainly reflects the structural change of the entire society’s mobility, and does not represent the change in the volume of mobility.

The situation was most prominent in January.

The Spring Festival that occurred at the end of January was the peak period for companies to generate salaries and bonuses, and the demand deposits per unit of the month decreased significantly2.

03 trillion.

This can also be confirmed from the growth of personal deposits and M0.

  Core question 3: What are the reasons and structural characteristics of the apparent rise in the scale of social financing in January?

  Preliminary results: The scale of social financing further expanded in January, and the growth rate obviously rebounded, showing that financial support for the real economy has increased, which is the result of the gradual emergence of the effects of monetary policy.

From the perspective of the composition of social financing scale indicators, the projects that account for a relatively large proportion have all witnessed a significant rise, mainly due to the following four points.

  First, the growth of loans has accelerated and the value has increased for more than a year.

Second, bond financing increased significantly.

Bond financing has also started to increase and accelerate since the second quarter of last year.

Third, the decline in entrusted loans decreased, and trust loans changed from negative to positive.

This is a new feature of the scale structure of social financing in January this year.

Fourth, commercial banks have increased their support for corporate credit.

It is mainly reflected in two aspects. The reduction of bill financing increased significantly by US $ 516 billion, an increase of US $ 481.3 billion over the same period of the previous year. This part has been reflected in the RMB loans of the month; gradually, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 37.86 million yuan., An increase of 234.9 billion yuan over the same period last year.

  Core question 4: How do you think loans in January hit a record high?

  Ultimately: Overall, the increase in loan growth in January was mainly due to the expansion of the macro-scale, the strength of countercyclical adjustments, the marginal improvement in monetary policy, and the impact of some alternative factors.

Banks generally have a “early exit, early return” and develop a “starter” business tradition.

From a historical perspective, January is the month with the largest number of incremental loans. In January this year, the situation of new loans was similar to that of the same period of last year. It matched the needs of the real economy and was a reasonable level. It was not a flood.

Taking into account the Spring Festival factors, the data in January, February and even the first quarter should be checked in a unified manner. It is not appropriate to pay too much attention to the monthly data.

  Core question 5: Has the orientation of sound monetary policy changed?

  Central Bank: The orientation of sound monetary policy has not changed.

“Prudent” is the working principle and guiding ideology of monetary policy. It is formulated that monetary policy should focus on stability and adhere to the general tone of progress while maintaining stability. It is necessary to effectively implement counter-cyclical adjustments and grasp the degree.

  On the whole, the scale of broad money and social financing has grown reasonably. According to the expected development and change, it reflects the requirements of countercyclical adjustments. The rhythm is also affected by changes such as the Spring Festival. The macro-leverage ratio remains stable, not to mention “water release.”
On the whole, monetary policy has explored and accumulated experience in serving the real economy better without flood irrigation.  Core question 6: Today ‘s inflation data is relatively low. Is it possible to cut interest rates?

  In the end: First of all, we must pay more attention to changes in the actual loan interest rate. Since then, the People’s Bank of China has adopted various monetary policy measures to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, so we can see that the money market interest rate is declining.

The bond market interest rate says that the national debt interest rate, the yield rate is downward, the corporate bond interest rate is downward, and the loan interest rate trend is also downward, especially in the last four months, the downward trend of the loan interest rate is relatively obvious, especially smallMicro-enterprise loan rates are down.

Director Nguyen also introduced that this trend in the data of January this year is still continuing, so we can see that the bank-to-business loan interest rate you pointed out just now is going down.

Corporate financing costs are falling.

At the same time, we must also see the advancement of the interest rate marketization. The two tracks are combined into one track. We have also encountered this problem on different occasions. We must push the benchmark interest rate and the deposit and loan market rates into one track.The role of policy interest rate in compensating for market interest rate and credit interest rate. I would like to look at the actual effect and from the perspective of the advancement of interest rate liberalization. We can pay more attention to the changes in actual bank loan interest rates.

  Attachment: Recording briefing of financial statistics data in January 2019. On the afternoon of February 15, the People’s Bank of China briefing briefing on financial statistics in January 2019.

Director of the General Office of the People’s Bank, news report Zhou Xuedong presided over the briefing, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department, Ruan Jianhong, director of the Department of Investigation and Statistics, and Zou Lan, deputy director of the Financial Market Department, attended the briefing and answered China Daily, Caixin, ReutersNews agency, Bloomberg News and other media.

The following is a textual record.

  Zhou Xuedong: Good afternoon, journalists and friends!

Welcome to today’s media briefing.

Everyone pays close attention to the financial statistics for January 2019.

Today, we invite several responsible comrades to interpret and respond to the financial statistics in January 2019 and some current hot issues.

Now, first, please ask Director Ruan Jianhong to release the financial statistics for January 2019.

  Ruan Jianhong: Let me introduce the basic situation of black financial statistics in January 2019.

  Since 2019, the People’s Bank of China has deployed in accordance with the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to a sound monetary policy, maintained a moderate degree of tightness, strengthened counter-cyclical adjustments, made fine adjustments to pre-adjustments, stabilized market expectations, strengthened policy communication and coordination, dredged monetary policy measures, and guided funds.Flow to private enterprises, small and micro enterprises, and other key areas, and weaknesses alternate, and fight well to prevent and resolve major risks.

Generally speaking, the current banking system has reasonable and abundant liquidity, the scale of monetary credit and social financing has grown reasonably, and market interest rates have been operating steadily.

  The first is the scale of social financing.

According to preliminary statistics, the increase in the scale of social financing in January 2019 was 4.
.

64 trillion yuan, more than the same period of the previous year1.

56 trillion yuan.

At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale was 205.

08 trillion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

4%, a growth rate of 0 higher than the end of last month.

7 digits, 2 lower than the same period last year.

3 averages.

  The second is the situation of money supply.

At the end of January, the broad money (M2) balance was 186.

59 trillion, an increase of 8 years.

4%, a growth rate of 0 higher than the end of last month.

3 digits, 0 lower than the same period last year.

2 digits; balance of narrow money (M1) 54.

56 trillion yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.

4%, the growth rate was 1 lower than the end of last month and the same period of the previous year.

1 and 14.

6 foreign exchange; currency in circulation (M0) balance 8.

75 trillion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

2%.

Net cash invested in the month1.
43 trillion yuan.
  The third is the loan situation.

At the end of January, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 145.

1 trillion, an increase of 12 in ten years.

8%.

RMB loan balance 139.

53 trillion, an increase of 13 in ten years.

4%, the growth rate is 0 lower than the end of last month.

Single digit, 0 higher than the same period last year.

2 averages.

RMB loans increased by 3.

23 trillion, an increase of 328.4 billion in one year.

The balance of foreign currency loans was 832.4 billion U.S. dollars, down by 6% every year.

Foreign currency loans increased by US $ 37.5 billion that month, an increase of US $ 9.8 billion in a year.

  The fourth is the deposit situation.

At the end of January, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits was 185.

8 trillion yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.

2%.

RMB deposit balance 180.

79 trillion, an annual increase of 7.

6%, a growth rate of 0 lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

6 and 2.

9 averages.

RMB deposits increased by 3.

27 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 581.5 billion.

The balance of foreign currency deposits was 746.8 billion U.S. dollars, down 10 each year.

6%.

Foreign currency deposits increased by US $ 19.3 billion in the month, an increase of US $ 25.5 billion in a year.

  Fifth, the transactions and interest rates in the inter-bank market.

In January, the inter-bank renminbi market used a total of 104 borrowings, cash and repurchases.

66 trillion, with an average daily turnover of 4.

76 trillion yuan, the average daily turnover increased by 30 over the same period last year.

5%.

In January, the nominal average interest rate on interbank lending was 2.

15%, 0 lower than last month and same period of last year.

42 and 0.

63 digits; pledged repo increases average interest rate by 2.

16%, 0 lower than last month and same period of last year.

52 and 0.

72 averages.
  Six is the situation of foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates.
At the end of January, the national foreign exchange reserve surplus was 3.

09 trillion dollars.

At the end of January, the RMB exchange rate was 1 USD to 6.

7025 yuan.

  Seventh, cross-border RMB settlement business.

In January 2019, cross-border trade in goods, trade in services and other current items settled in Renminbi, foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment respectively took place 3603.

600 million, 1176.

800 million, 495.

900 million, 1527.

200 million yuan.

  The above is the basic situation of financial statistics in January 2019.

These data have been released simultaneously on the People’s Bank of China website.

  Zhou Xuedong: Thank you, Director Ruan, below for answering the hot issues that everyone is concerned about.

  Q: At the end of January 2019, the M2 growth rate was 8.

4%, an increase of 0 from the end of last year.

Three averages, what are the factors that support the growth of M2?

In addition, M1 has fallen further under the condition of low-speed growth last year. What do you think of this phenomenon?

  Ruan Jianhong: The rebound in M2 growth rate in January should be a concentrated reflection of the effects of the previous monetary policy.

  First, the People’s Bank of China moderately increased medium and long-term liquidity supply.
On the basis of the multiple policies introduced in 2018 to release liquidity, it lowered its quota again in January this year to release liquidity1.

5 trillion yuan, implement the targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF) operation, and complete the 2018 inclusive financial targeted reduction assessment.

These measures are conducive to maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

  Secondly, commercial banks increased the use of funds, on-balance-sheet credit, bond investment and equity and other investments increased exchange rates to promote the growth of M2.

On-balance sheet loans increased by 3 in January.

23 trillion US dollars, an increase of 328.4 billion US dollars a year; bond investment increased by 406.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 358.3 billion US dollars over decades; equity and other investments increased by 846.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 306.6 billion US dollars a year.

  In addition, we also see that the growth rate of the M1 has driven the Chinese New Year factor to fall again.

We mentioned that the fall of M1 mainly reflects the structural change of the entire society’s mobility, and does not represent the change in the volume of mobility.

The situation was most prominent in January.

The Spring Festival that occurred at the end of January was the peak period for companies to generate salaries and bonuses, and the demand deposits per unit of the month decreased significantly2.

03 trillion.

This can also be confirmed from the growth of personal deposits and M0.

In January, personal deposits increased significantly3.

87 trillion, an increase of 15 in ten years.

5%; M0 increased by 1.

43 trillion yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

2%.

It should be said that this year’s Spring Festival people hold more funds than before, and have more money on hand.

  The above is just an introduction to basic data.

Later, Director Sun explained the details of monetary policy in detail.
  Q: We have observed that the growth rate of social financing scale has continued to decline since July 2017.
Judging from the situation you just introduced, the growth rate of social financing in January this year showed a significant pick-up. Can you explain further the reasons and structural characteristics of the pick-up?

  Ruan Jianhong: In January 2019, the increase in the scale of social financing increased by more than the previous month3.

05 trillion, more than the same period last year.

56 trillion yuan.
At the end of January, the stock of social financing increased ten years.

4%, a growth rate of 0 higher than last month.

7 averages.

  The scale of social financing in January further increased, and the growth rate obviously rebounded, showing that financial support for the real economy has increased, which is the result of the gradual emergence of the effects of monetary policy.

From the perspective of the composition of social financing scale indicators, the projects that account for a relatively large proportion have all witnessed a significant rise, mainly due to the following four points.

  First, the growth of loans has accelerated and the value has increased for more than a year.

Since the second half of last year, the growth rate of financial institutions’ loans to the real economy has slowed down to a steady growth.

This situation has continued in January this year, and at the same time, it has also superimposed the initial initial factors. The growth of loans has accelerated, and the value has been increased many times.

RMB loan balance at the end of January was 138.

26 trillion, an increase of 13 in ten years.

6%, 0 higher than the same period last year.

4 digits, RMB loans increased by 3.

57 trillion yuan, an increase of 881.8 billion yuan over the same period last year.

  Second, bond financing increased significantly.

Bond financing has also started to increase and accelerate since the second quarter of last year.

The growth rate of corporate bonds in January this year picked up significantly, with a balance of 20 at the end of January.

5 trillion yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

7%, the growth rate is 2 and 7 higher than last month and the same period last year.

Three integers, the highest level since April 2017; net corporate bond financing for the month was 498 billion yuan, 376.8 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year.

The issuance of local bonds also increased in January. The net financing of local government special bonds for the month was 108.8 billion yuan, 108.8 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year.

  Third, the decline in entrusted loans decreased, and trust loans changed from negative to positive.

This is a new feature of the scale structure of social financing in January this year.
In January, entrusted loans decreased by 69.9 billion U.S. dollars, down by 151.1 billion U.S. dollars and 1 billion U.S. dollars compared with the previous month and the same period of the previous year.Last month increased by 83.3 billion yuan.

  Fourth, commercial banks have increased their support for corporate credit.

It is mainly reflected in two aspects. The reduction of bill financing increased significantly by US $ 516 billion, an increase of US $ 481.3 billion over the same period of the previous year. This part has been reflected in the RMB loans of the month; gradually, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 37.86 million yuan., An increase of 234.9 billion yuan over the same period last year.

  Q: What do you think of the record high loans in January?

  Sun Guofeng: In January 2019, RMB loans of financial institutions increased by 3.

23 trillion yuan, a record high in a single month, an increase of 328.4 billion yuan over the years; the long-term growth rate of loan balance at the end of January was 13.

4%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

2 averages.

On the whole, the increase in loan growth in January was mainly due to the macroscopic expansion of the counter-cyclical adjustment speed, the marginal improvement of monetary policy, and the impact of some alternative factors.

Since 2018, especially in the fourth quarter, the People’s Bank of China has actively adopted a series of measures to ease the constraints on the bank’s credit supply and to unblock the monetary policy control mechanism, including: First, to promote the issuance of perpetual bonds by banks, so as to make breakthroughs and improve capital for banksSubstantial constraints on the issuance of credit; second, comprehensive use of targeted reductions, medium-term borrowing facilities (MLF), refinancing, and re-discounting and other measures to create medium-term borrowing facilities (TMLF), while alleviating the liquidity constraints faced by some banksDesign incentive incentive compatibility mechanism, guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, expand credit to small and micro enterprises, and private enterprises; Third, study and promote the gradual “two tracks in one track” of interest rates, and unblock the increase of policy rates to credit ratesExchange rate to ease interest rate constraints.

The effects of these measures are showing, the marginal improvement of monetary policy integration has also occurred, and financial support for the real economy has increased.

At the same time, banks generally have an “early launch, early return” and carry out a “starter” business tradition.

From a historical perspective, January is the month with the highest expected lending, and the number of new loans in January 2018 was 2.
The 9 trillion US dollars was the month when the loan was the largest. The situation of new loans in January this year was similar to that of the same period last year. It matched the needs of the real economy and was a reasonable level. It was not a flood.
Taking into account the Spring Festival factors, the data in January, February and even the first quarter should be checked in a unified manner. It is not appropriate to pay too much attention to the monthly data.

  Q: Has the orientation of sound monetary policy changed?

  Sun Guofeng: The orientation of sound monetary policy has not changed.

“Prudent” is the working principle and guiding ideology of monetary policy. It is formulated that monetary policy should focus on stability and adhere to the general tone of progress while maintaining stability. It is necessary to effectively implement counter-cyclical adjustments and grasp the degree.

Specifically, monetary conditions must be matched with the requirements for maintaining stable economic growth and price stability. They must not be loose or tight.

In accordance with the requirements of maintaining stable economic growth and preventing systemic risks, we must achieve appropriate moderation and optimize the credit structure. At the same time, we must also take into account external equilibrium and grasp comprehensive balance among multiple objectives.

From the perspective of the liquidity supply operation of monetary policy, the rhythm is close and stable, and combined with the incentive mechanism. In January 2019, the RRR cut was considered, and the net long-term funds were released after the change of the intermediate borrowing facility of about $ 300 billion.Hedging with cash placements before the Spring Festival to avoid liquidity accumulation, taking into account liquidity demand factors such as tax payment, initial credit growth, and early issuance of local debt.

On the whole, the scale of broad money and social financing has grown reasonably. According to the expected development and change, it reflects the requirements of countercyclical adjustments. The rhythm is also affected by changes such as the Spring Festival. The macro-leverage ratio remains stable, not to mention “water release”;From the perspective of credit structure, it is mainly to increase support for small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and other key areas and weak swaps. The medium- and long-term loans of manufacturing industries, especially high-tech manufacturing industries, have accelerated significantly. The quality of financial services for the real economy has improved, and the economy has been promoted.Structural transformation and upgrading; at the same time, the relationship between internal and external balance was better handled.

On the whole, monetary policy has explored and accumulated experience in serving the real economy better without flood irrigation.

  Q: How about the growth of loans to small and micro enterprises in January?

  Ruan Jianhong: The People ‘s Bank of China conscientiously implemented the Party Central Committee and the State Council ‘s decision-making and deployment, and continued to promote the combination of “several rises” and “three arrows”. In January, small and micro enterprise loans continued to increase in volume and prices since the second half of last year.Development trend.

  First, inclusive small and micro loans maintained rapid growth.

As of the end of January 2019, the balance of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans (including small- and micro-enterprise loans with a single household credit of less than 10 million, and individual industrial and commercial households and small and micro-enterprise business owners’ loans) 9.

7 trillion, an increase of 17 in ten years.

6%, the growth rate is 2 higher than the end of last year.

4 averages.

It increased by US $ 210.9 billion in January, an increase of 2 from the same period last year.

6 times.

  Second, the loan interest rate of small and micro enterprises continued to fall.

The People’s Bank of China has guided the price of funds downward through liquidity support.

In January 2019, the average loan interest rate for newly issued small and micro enterprises below 10 million yuan was 6.

16%, down from the previous month.

12 averages, down by 0 from the same period last year.

21 digits.

  Third, the number of small and micro households supported by credit continued to increase.

As of the end of January 2019, the Pratt & Whitney micro and small loans supported 21.65 million households of small and micro businesses, an increase of 260,000 in January, and an increase of at least 70,000.

  The fourth is the integration of credit support for labor-intensive industries.

In January 2019, among the increase in loans to small and micro enterprises with a single household credit of less than 10 million, manufacturing and wholesale and retail enterprise loans accounted for 38 respectively.

5% and 24.

6%.

  In the next step, the People’s Bank of China will continue to guide financial institutions to deepen financial services for small and micro enterprises and increase support for small and micro enterprises in accordance with the requirements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council.

  Q: There is a view that in January of this year, the issuance of high-grade bonds in credit bond sales was hot, and private enterprise bonds were cold.

What about this issue?

  Zou Lan: Recently, some people believe that the issuance of credit bonds in January 2019 showed a trend of “high-grade debt is hot, and private enterprise bonds are cold.”

After our analysis, we believe that: First, the overall credit bond issuance in January continued to improve.

In January 2019, the company issued approximately 950 billion credit bonds, an increase of 17 from the previous quarter.

7%, a year-on-year growth of 165%, continuing the better issuance situation since November 2018.

  Second, the issuance of low- and medium-grade credit bonds and net financing further improved.

In January 2019, AA-grade and below corporate credit bonds issued 1,028 trillion, an increase of 28 from the previous quarter.
1%, accounting for 10% of all corporate credit bonds.
84%, which were 0 in December 2018 and before 2018.

98 digits and 0.

76 averages; the average, the net financing of corporate credit-grade bonds of AA grades and below this month was approximately US $ 9.3 billion, which turned from negative to positive for the first time in the past six months.

  Thirdly, the issuance volume of private enterprise bonds in January decreased slightly from the previous month, but it is still at a relatively high level since the same period in 2017.

In January 2019, the issuance of private corporate bonds was US $ 60.4 billion, a slight decrease compared to December 2018. However, in a continuous view, the issuance of private corporate bonds in January 2019 was 51% and 60% higher than in 2017, and%, Which is still a high level in the same period since 2017.

In addition, since this year, the scale of asset-backed securities issued by private enterprises has further increased, providing capital supplements for private enterprise financing.

  In summary, we believe that the overall scale of credit bond issuance in January this year is good, and the scale of medium and low-grade and private corporate bond financing has improved, but the yield of high-grade bonds is higher, indicating that the bond market is reasonably ample and investor confidenceOverall recovery.

  Q: Bill financing is growing faster, and is it related to other factors?

  Zou Lan: In January 2019, the bank’s acceptance bill acceptance balance10.

48 trillion yuan, a 10-year growth rate of 23.

24%; bill financing surplus 6.

3 trillion yuan, a growth rate of 60 in ten years.

6%, accounting for 4% of statutory loans.

51%, rising by 1 every year.

32 averages.

In January, the rapid growth of bill financing was related to the following factors: First, in the context of the decline in bill financing rates, the expectations of corporate bill financing increased.

Compared with loans and other financing methods, bills have short maturities, high convenience, and good liquidity, and are important financing channels for SMEs.

At the same time, the rediscount policy increased the guidance and optimization of the credit structure, and the bill’s support for SMEs was further strengthened.

At present, among the companies using bill financing, small, medium and micro enterprises account for more than 60%.

  Second, the advantages of bills in resolving delinquent accounts have become more prominent.

With the improvement of the convenience of bill financing, the reduction of financing costs and the acceleration of bill circulation, a large number of enterprises have solved the problem of account arrears and capital turnover by issuing and transferring bills.

According to statistics, among the issued bank acceptance bills, the proportion of small, medium and micro enterprises is 62%.

  Third, the rapid growth of bill financing in January also has certain exceptions. Judging from historical data, the initial bill business growth generally exceeds the same period.

  Q: What are the structural characteristics of corporate loan growth and capital investment?

  Ruan Jianhong: At present, the speed of bank loans to enterprises is slightly faster than the same period last year.

At the end of January, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans of enterprises and other units was 91.

58 trillion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

7%, a growth rate of 0 higher than the end of last year and the same period last year.

8 and 1.

8 averages.

In January, corporate and other unit loans increased by 2.

56 trillion yuan, an increase of 827.3 billion yuan a year.

Among them, short-term loans and bill financing increased by 1.

11 trillion yuan, an increase of 710.8 billion yuan a year; mid- and long-term loans increased by 1.

39 trillion, an increase of 9907 billion a year.

Medium- and long-term loans have increased for the first time since August 2018.

  From the actual investment direction of medium and long-term loans: industrial medium- and long-term loans have grown steadily.

At the end of January, the industrial medium- and long-term loan surplus increased by 7.

3%, unchanged from the end of the previous year and 1 higher than the same period last year.
8 averages.
  The growth of medium- and long-term loans in manufacturing industry has accelerated significantly, and the medium- and long-term loans in high-tech manufacturing industries have continued to accelerate at a high level.

At the end of January, the manufacturing medium- and long-term loan surplus increased by 11.

1%, 0 higher than the end of last year and the same period of last year.

6 and 7.

1 average.

  Among them, the balance of medium- and long-term loans for high-tech manufacturing increased by 37% each year, which was 3 higher than the end of the previous year and the same period of the previous year.

Nine and fourteen are single, which is 25 times higher than the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans for manufacturing in the same period.

9 averages.

  The growth rate of medium and 北京夜网 long-term loans for the service industry excluding the real estate industry rebounded.

At the end of January, the balance of medium- and long-term loans for the service industry excluding the real estate industry increased by 9 per year.

9%, 0 higher than the end of the previous year.

5 averages.

In January, the long-term and long-term loans of the service industry excluding real estate increased by US $ 712 billion, accounting for 55% of the increase in long-term loans of all industries, which was 6 higher than the same period of the previous year.

4 averages.

  The growth rate of long-term real estate loans continued to decline.

At the end of January, the medium- and long-term loan surplus of the real estate industry increased by 22.

8%, 1 lower than the end of the previous year.

2 averages.

In January, the medium- and long-term loan increment of the real estate industry accounted for 28 of the medium- and long-term loan increment of all industries.

3%, 5 lower than the same period last year.

1 average.

  Zhou Xuedong: The corporate loan structure is being optimized and improved, especially industrial and manufacturing loan growth is picking up, high-tech manufacturing loan growth is relatively high, and financial support for high-tech companies has increased significantly. This is a relatively good changeIt reflects the results of economic structural adjustment and supply-side structural reform.

Long-term and medium-term loans for the service industry excluding the real estate industry also increased.

The growth rate of medium- and long-term loans in the real estate industry continued to fall to a certain extent.

  Q: What are the reasons for the change in “other assets” in the long-term balance sheet?

  Ruan Jianhong: “Other assets” in the long-term assets and liabilities statement is a collection of asset subjects that are not separately listed, mainly some miscellaneous asset items and receivable provisional items.

By the end, too many of these projects were subject to change.

After the end of the year, these migration movements will be weakened or eliminated.

  Question: The bills increased more last month. Now there is a saying in the market that some of the increase in bills is arbitrage. How do you think of this phenomenon?

  Zou Lan: Some phenomena are inevitable, and we are paying close attention.

Overall, we feel that growth is related to several factors just mentioned.

  Q: You mentioned earlier that the current liquidity is abundant and the market is running smoothly. We see that the gradual data today is relatively low. Is it possible to cut interest rates?

  Sun Guofeng: First of all, we must pay more attention to the changes in actual loan interest rates. Since last year, the People’s Bank of China has adopted various monetary policy measures to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, so we can see that the money market interest rates are going down.

The bond market interest rate says that the national debt interest rate, the yield rate is downward, the corporate bond interest rate is downward, and the loan interest rate trend is also downward, especially in the last four months, the downward trend of the loan interest rate is relatively obvious, especially smallMicro-enterprise loan rates are down.
Director Nguyen also introduced that this trend in the data of January this year is still continuing, so we can see that the bank-to-business loan interest rate you pointed out just now is going down.

Corporate financing costs are falling.
At the same time, we must also see the advancement of the interest rate marketization. The two tracks are combined into one track. We have also encountered this problem on different occasions. We must push the benchmark interest rate and the deposit and loan market rates into one track.The role of policy interest rate in compensating for market interest rate and credit interest rate. I would like to look at the actual effect and from the perspective of the advancement of interest rate liberalization. We can pay more attention to the changes in actual bank loan interest rates.
  Q: The shadow banking data increased in January. Will it continue?

In addition, the base of M1 in the first half of last year is not too low. Is it possible that a negative situation may occur next month or March?
Have some influence on monetary policy?
  Ruan Jianhong: First of all, let me talk about a conceptual issue.

Entrusted loans and trust loans are collectively referred to as off-balance sheet financing, not shadow banking.

In your question, I feel that the scale is talking about off-balance sheet financing.

First, from the second half of 2017 to 2018, affected by structural deleveraging, off-balance sheet financing experienced a rapid decline.

From the perspective of data trends, although the growth rate of off-balance sheet financing is still expected to decline, the decline will be narrowed.

Secondly, your question mentioned the relationship between M1 and corporate demand deposits. From our survey and monitoring data of 5,000 companies, the liquidity situation of enterprises has deteriorated.

  Sun Guofeng: I add that from the perspective of monetary policy, I mainly focus on the M2 broad money supply and the scale of social financing, because from the relationship between economic variables, the relationship between broad money supply and economic growth and prices is moreTo be outstanding, this is why M2 was chosen as a credit indicator in advance.

M1 is an observational indicator, and the reasons for its changes can also be analyzed, but the relationship with M1 and economic growth and prices is not so stable. This is also an important reason why central banks around the world have not adopted M1 as an intermediate target for monetary policy.At the same time, it does not represent any adjustments to be made in monetary policy. The focus is on observing the broad money supply M2 and the scale of social financing.

  Question: Yesterday, the China Office and the State Office issued several opinions on strengthening financial and private enterprises. There are many new measures and references. What is the more important impact of the release of this document on our future enhancement of credit services?

  Zhou Xuedong: This document mainly includes 18 measures in five aspects.

We believe that the document aims to optimize the credit structure and improve the relevance and effectiveness of financial services for private enterprises.

Credit loans are an important form of loan for bank loans. However, in order to curb the excessive growth of non-performing loans in loan issuance, most banks impose lifelong liability on non-performing loans for credit personnel.

Therefore, the credit officers are under great pressure. Once the loan is released, if it is unhealthy, it will face the pressure of accountability for life, then there will be concerns when lending.

If a company does not have enough assets to be pledged, it will be difficult to lend.

From an enterprise perspective, credit officers are reluctant to lend to private enterprises and small and micro enterprises, which is reflected to a large extent by insufficient collateral.

Therefore, some scholars criticize this phenomenon, saying that if we continue to do so, our banks will be the same as pawn shops, called banking pawning.

Therefore, the introduction of this measure in this document is very timely. Appropriate corrections should be made. If there is poor loan credit, it is necessary to distinguish whether there are practices that violate laws and regulations.

Are there any facts for personal gain?

If due diligence is in place, it should be waived.

Only then dare to lend to private enterprises or small and micro enterprises.

This document is very informative and the financial sector will take it seriously.

  That’s it for today’s briefing.

Thank you, journalists, and the three directors.